Using College Sports to Analyze the Election

Basically the election gets decided by the Big 10. Here is how it looks right now.

Bush has solid support in Mountain West, Big 12, SEC and ACC.

Kerry does well in the Pac-10 and Big East

The two split those horrible backwaters where neither top tier football nor basketball is played most of New England and parts of the Rockies, Alaska, Hawaii.

So the Big 10 is the battleground, here is how it looks right now.


Kerry wins the PAC-10. Wins California, Washington, Oregon loses Arizona

Bush wins the Mountain West and Big 12. Wins: Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Missouri. Losses: none. Iowa is a toss up and has one team in the Big 12 and one the Big 10 so Iowans just don't know what to do. New Mexico is also a toss up.

Bush wins the SEC. Wins, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, South Carolina and yes Florida. Losses: none

Bush wins the ACC. Wins: North Carolina, Virginia, and as above, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina. Losses: Maryland, Massachusetts (if we count future member Boston College).

Kerry wins the Big East. Wins: DC, New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Connecticut. Losses: Indiana (for Notre Dame) and West Virginia. Pennsylvania which has like half of the Big East and is also a Big 10 state is a toss up.


The slate is about even in states without top college sports

Bush wins: Alaska, Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota

Kerry wins: Hawaii, Maine, Vermont

Toss up: New Hampshire (leans Bush)


Obviously, Bush has more states but Kerry has some of the big dogs. California and New York alone get a guy about one third of the way to needed tally in the Electoral College.

So, it all comes down to the Big 10.

Bush wins: Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin

Kerry wins: Illinois, Michigan

Toss ups: Iowa, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.


Iowa leans Bush right now, PA clearly too close to call, Kerry probably wins MN but he should not have the fight he is having their. I mean I know he was a favorite son but Minnesota actually voted for MONDALE preventing Reagan from going undefeated in '84.

Using the college sports system the Electoral College looks like this (271 to win):


Bush 284

Kerry 211

Toss up 53 with 37 of those in the Big 10.

Also, the projections may be a bit optimistic in favor of Bush, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada all look very good but are hardly locks.

For Kerry I have given him Oregon and Maine both of which could definitely still swing Bush.

Still, Kerry would need to woop up on Bush in the Big 10 to even make it a good fight.

Bush wins.